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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.81% at 23,520.01

Japanese stocks recover after a softer last two days ForexLive The gains in the Nikkei are led by tech stocks but overall, most sectors were seen performing decently as investors keep up hope on trade progress between the US and China.

Japan October preliminary machine tool orders -37.4% vs -35.5% y/y prior

Latest data released by the Japanese Machine Tool Builders' Association - -35.5% Export orders continue to slump and reaffirms the weakness seen in the global manufacturing sector. Japan is no exception to that and this will feed into another sluggish

What is the market pricing in ahead of the RBNZ decision tomorrow?

Odds of a rate cut have gone up since overnight trading ForexLive In case you're wondering what's weighing on the kiwi dollar today, it is the fact that the market is pricing in higher odds of a 25 bps rate cut for tomorrow.

China foreign ministry: Crimes in Hong Kong must be punished

That will do little to alleviate tensions in the city As the protests and the standoff continues, this matter will continue to weigh on investor confidence and more so if it escalates further down the road.

Economic data coming up in the European session

German ZEW survey data for November in focus The kiwi has been dragged lower though after NZ data disappointed ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy decision tomorrow. Odds of a 25 bps rate cut are now at ~76% compared to the ~60% seen yesterday.

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: RBNZ data heightens the chance of a rate cut

Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 12 November 2019  Yes, the focus for today in Asia fell on the New Zealand dollar and how it would respond to inflation expectations data. The RBNZ meet Wednesday New Zealand time and the further drop in inflation expectations revealed today have boosted the probability of a rate cut from

More on that change of RBNZ forecast from Westpac (now expecting a rate cut tomorrow)

The earlier info this Reserve Bank of New Zealand  projection is here:  It is in response to the further fall in inflation expectations in NZ: Which has weighed on the kiwi $ today:

China's Global Times urges the downward spiral of China-Australia relations needs to be stopped

An opinion piece in the forthright Global Times out of China, titled:  Oz needs to get over anti-China hangover It outlines the srong ties between the two countires countries but goes on to say that since 2017 there has been deterioration in relations.

Westpac change its RBNZ call for tomorrow - now forecast a rate cut

WPAC was previously projecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  remain on hold  Change their call citing the further drop in inflation expectations, data released earlier:

Japanese PM Abe says he wants extra budget to assist economic recovery

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will be happy to hear this, to the extent more fiscal action from the government removes some of the heavy lifting from monetary policy.

Gold - Morgan Stanley on effect of continued progress on US-China trade agreement

MS acknowledge an increased risk to their call for higher gold prices - H1 2020 outlook is for 1515 USD/oz MS notes the risk of gold falling toward its bear case of USD1394/oz in H1 of 2020 if tariffs are rolled back

PBOC adviser urges rate cuts at the Bank, and more fiscal support from government

Wants a more pro-active fiscal policy & People's Bank of China rate cuts  Sheng Songcheng is an adviser to the People's Bank of China  , with the advice.

NZD traders heads up - RBNZ meet Wednesday - preview

Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision due 13 November 2019 at 0100GMT  Earlier: Couple of other snippets, via ... NAB: UBS assesses the likelihood of a cut at 15%

FX option expiries for Tuesday November 12 at the 10am NY cut

EUR/USD -  1.1000 1.5bn -  1.1025 537m -  1.1075 835m -  1.1085 558m  GBP/USD ForexLive

USD strength on the session so far in Asia

Check these out against the USD  … all lower in the past few minutes/hours: - yen - AUD - NZD - CAD - EUR GBP  though is hanging in there (The Nige helped it along overnight:  )

New Zealand 2 year inflation expectations 1.80% (prior 1.86%)

For the fourth quarter of 2019, Q4  - 2 year expectations drop to 1.80% from 1.86% prior - 1-year 1.66% Well, down a little. The data is a day ahead of the RBNZ policy decision so the market is a wee bit more sensitive to this than usual. NZD down a few tics. 

NZD traders - NZ data coming up soon, market might be unusually sensitive

Inflation expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  is due at 0200 GMT I posted a rundown of why this is is a relevant data point here earlier: A couple of bank analyst comments:

JP Morgan say RBA QE is coming by the end of 2020

Reserve Bank of Australia quantitative easing is on the way - local press here in Australia with the story today on JPM's forecast  "For some time, we have forecast that the RBA will cut rates by a further 25 basis points in February 2020. We now add quantitative easing to this forecast, and anticipate that the

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9988 (vs. yesterday at 6.9933)

The People's Bank of China have returned some wiggle to the reference rate In OMOs, skipped today  No RRs maturing ForexLive

AUD response to higher but still awful business confidence data … desperate for love

The Australian dollar is up a few tics after the business survey data: Yep, the results are an improvement. From a very low level and to marginally less very low levels.

Australia Oct. Business confidence 2 (vs. prior 0) & Business conditions 3 (vs. prior 2)

National Australia Bank Business Survey for October  more to come      -- Background: ForexLive

ICYMI - Chinese firm to invest £1.2bn in British Steel

Overnight news of relevance to the UK and China Chinese firm Jingye says will invest £1.2bn in British Steel (a UK steel maker) - it would seek to "preserve thousands of jobs " , posting it for interest

French President Macron says he spoke with Trump on phone - an excellent conversation

Can't wait for the Emmanuel and Donald's Excellent Phone Call movie  - Macron says he had an excellent phone conversation with Trump - the two discussed Syria, Iran and NATO Meanwhile Trump says he will be releasing a first transcript of the Ukraine call this week.

Monday, November 11, 2019

Eurostoxx futures -0.2% in early European trading

Slightly softer tones observed in early trades - German DAX futures -0.4% - French CAC 40 futures -0.4% - UK FTSE futures -0.3% ForexLive This keeps in tune with the more defensive risk mood to start the week, as conflicting messages surrounding US-China trade talks continue to see concerns linger.

Germany October wholesale price index -0.1% vs -0.4% m/m prior

Latest data released by Destatis - 11 November 2019 - -0.4% - Wholesale price index -2.3% y/y - Prior -1.9% ForexLive Slight delay in the release by the source. The index measures the value of sales made by wholesalers in Germany, it provides an indicator of consumption and retail pattern.

Gold a little higher on the day but buyers are in a precarious spot

The slightly softer risk mood sees gold trade 0.3% higher today ForexLive But a lot can still go wrong for gold. The move lower towards the end of last week saw price ease below its 100-day MA (red line) for the first time since June this year and buyers barely survived a firm break below the October low/support

European pre-market: Yen a little firmer as trade concerns linger

Conflicting messages about US-China trade tariffs give the yen a mild boost ForexLive At the same time, the increasing violence in the Hong Kong protests - where a police officer fired at protesters - is also weighing on risk sentiment in Asia today.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.26% at 23,331.84

A weaker start to the week for Asian equities The Hang Seng is down by 2.4% while the Shanghai Composite is down by 1.4% currently and that is also weighing on risk as we get things going on the session.

USD/JPY buyers look to keep control, what levels to look out for?

USD/JPY buyers will be seeking to hold above the 109.00 handle today ForexLive As things stand, bids around the 109.00 handle is helping to keep USD/JPY afloat despite some weakness in trading to start the week.

Trade ideas thread - European session 11 November 2019

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts The yen and gold are sitting higher but so is the kiwi - helped by apparent exporter bids after the drop at the end of last week. The dollar remains overall steady while the pound is holding close to 1.2800 with UK GDP data still to follow later

Iran says it discovers oil deposit in Nāmāvar

According to oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh here Finding more oil is only good news for Iran if they can somehow manage to circumvent current sanctions, otherwise the inability to export them matters much more for now.

Economic data coming up in the European session

UK Q3 preliminary GDP figures in focus to start the new week The yen is keeping with mild gains to start the week with USD/JPY lingering close to the 109.00 handle as US-China trade talks continue to dictate the trading theme - as it has been for the most part of last week.

Japan October economy watchers survey current conditions 36.7 vs 40.6 expected

Latest data released by the Japanese Cabinet Office - 11 November 2019 - Prior 46.7 - Outlook 43.7 vs 41.9 expected - Prior 36.9 ForexLive Slight delay in the release by the source.

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Yen and gold up slightly

Forex news for Asia trading Monday 11 November 2019 There is not too much change for major FX pairs over the weekend despite some news. White House trade adviser Navarro said a roll-back of tariffs is not in the phase one trade agreement being worked on with China. US President Trump was a little more encouraging,

AUD traders - heads up for business conditions and confidence data due tomorrow

A quick preview here via ANZ on the NAb business survey for October:  - conditions should see some improvement - Ai Group's services performance index hitting an 11-month high

A couple of bank views on gold - less bullish for it

A couple of notes from late last week, JPM and Citi turning less favourable on gold. But … in their reasoning you get a good summary of what to watch out for:

Biggest event of the week coming up - Fed Chair Powel speaking Wednesday

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give his annual Economic Outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress on Wednesday - And will follow up with the same on Thursday to the House Budget Committee Powell speaks at 11am (ET), which will be 1600GMT. He'll then have a Q&A with members of Congress.

Monetary Authority of Singapore blockchain-based prototype for FX payments

The MAS worked in collaboration with J.P. Morgan and Temasek - on development of a blockchain-based prototype that enables payments to be carried out in different currencies on the same network Via a information release from the Monetary Authority of Singapore dated today.

Here are two headlines. Pick the one you prefer.

I wish they were adjacent, but they are separated by a few minutes. The first .... USD consolidates gains amid cautious optimism on tariff deal The second ….

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opens lower, down more than 1.1%. Violence in HK intensifying.

Weekend protest in HK is deteriorating into violence Monday, with at least two protesters shot by police. Stocks on mainland China are also lower at the opening, around 0.5% lower for the CSI300 and Shanghai Composite 

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9933

People's Bank of China onshore yuan mid rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is permitted to vary by plus or minus 2% from this rate. Any further than that and the PBOC will intervene to halt the move

FX option expiries for Monday November 11 at the 10am NY cut

Its a partial market holiday in the US today, maybe that is a reason the expiry calendar is so light.  EUR/USD -  1.1050 625m USD/JPY

EUR performing 'poorly' - here's why

This is a small item via ING on the euro, bolding is mine and something to be aware of ahead: - EUR is performing pretty poorly - even though many asset classes are starting to price in a more positive trade environment

Spain election summary - no party won enough seats for a majority

Spain's ruling Socialists won the largest share of the vote  - took 120 seats (from 123 prior)  Which is well short of the 176 needed for a majority (its a 350-seat lower house)

RBA outlook from JP Morgan - further rate cuts to come

JPM expect anther interest rate cur from the Reserve Bank of Australia in February 2020 - a 25 bp cut The RBA meeting on February 4 2020 will be the first for the new year.

UK data shows employers' hiring plans have risen from an 18-month low despite Brexit uncetainty

A survey by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), info via Reuters. - its quarterly net employment balance rose to +22 from +18 - back in line with its average over the past year

BOJ 'summary' of the October monetary policy meeting out now

Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions  more to come   ---   Full text is here ForexLive

Japan - Core Machinery Orders for September: -2.9% m/m (expected 0.9%)

This economic indicator is used as a guide to business capital expenditure in the months ahead (around 6 to 9 months out) Comes in at: -2.9 % m/m - expected 0.9%, prior -2.4% +5.1 % y/y 

Japan Balance of Payment Current Account data for September

We also have machinery orders due from Japan at the same time (separate post)  BoP Current Account Balance Y 1612.9bn  - expected Y 1710.0bn, prior Y 2157.7bn BoP Current Account Adjusted Y bn

Financing data to come from China this week

Data for October -  growth expected but down from September  - Aggregate financing RMB for October, expected is 950bn, prior was 22.72.5bn - New yuan loans, expected is 800bn, prior was 1690bn Data is due sometime from today through to the 15th. 

AUD trading below fair value, but view for week ahead is mildly bearish

A snippet on AUD/USD via ANZ. Analysts out fair value for the Australian dollar at 0.70. View ahead: Week ahead outlook is .  mildly bearish - Month ahead outlook is . 

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Gold futures markets about to open for the week

I often get asked for gold prices early on Monday, posting this as a guide. Mostly your gold brokers will base their pricing on what is going on at the Comex exchange

NZD traders heads up - RBNZ meet this week - most analysts expect a rate cut

Reuters polling has 12 out 15 expected a cash rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand  this week.  RBNZ meet Wednesday 13 November. I posted this a little earlier:

Brexit - ICYMI, Moddy's has placed the UK on negative credit outlook

Moody's has ratcheted lower the UK's credit outlook to negative from its previous rating of stable  The rating agency cited Brexit "paralysis", making policymaking less predictable

Trade ideas thread - Monday 11 November 2019

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

NZ Card Spending for October, 'retail' comes in at -0.6% m/m vs. +0.4% expected

Quite the miss for this indicator New Zealand - Card Spending for October Earlier from NZ already this week: ForexLive

Weekend comments from ex-ECB head - says Bitcoin "is not real"

Speaking on cryptocurrency, comment6s from European Central Bank's former president Jean-Claude Trichet Over the weekend at the Caixin's 10th annual conference in Beijing

US holiday on Monday (sorta)

Its a partial market holiday in the US on Monday, 11 November 2019  - the cash bond market is closed - stock markets are open - forex will be trading, but with reduced liquidity  An FYI to bear in mind.

RBNZ 'shadow board' are divided on where cash rate should be, 'increased skew towards a higher OCR'

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research have a set of analysts to make up their' shadow' monetary policy board.  From the NZIER: For the upcoming policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

Weekend comments from US President Trump - trade talks "moving along, I think, very nicely'

The usual sort of comments, not much re details, just general chit chat really: ForexLive

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today

2145 GMT New Zealand - Card Spending for October Unlikely to be too much of an NZD mover upon release. 2350 GMT Japan - Core Machinery Orders for September

Weekend inflation data from China - CPI up (7 year high) PPI down

China's consumer price index (CPI) hit at 7 year high at  3.8% y/y in October, vs. 3% the previous month - Pork prices continued gaining amidst the swine flu epidemic. Core CPI (excludes food and energy prices) gains were not as dramatic. PPI down 1.6% y/y vs. down 1.2% in Sep. This will continue to be a

Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 11 November 2019

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week! As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come on online ... prices are liable to swing around on not too much at all, so take

Iran says it has discovered oilfield with 53 billion barrels

Iran's President makes the announcement Iran has discovered an oilfield containing 53 billion barrels in the southwest of the country, according to President Hassan Rouhani.

What implied volatility says about the week ahead (and about December)

Some spots to watch It was a fascinating week and one where the bond bulls and equity bears are hurting, and more-and-more strategists are advising clients to look at the reflation trade more readily.

GBP/USD is near support

The pound is under pressure formed a lower high at the start of this month, pressured by the strong resistance in the 1.30 area. Not far above it, there are the declining 100- and 200-week MAs.

Saturday, November 9, 2019

Navarro: "There is no agreement to rollback any existing tariffs as part of the Phase One deal"

Navarro comments on Saturday "There's no rollback at all, there are no conflicting signals," Navarro . told Yahoo The White House hawk said China asserted facts that weren't in the agreement.

USD/CNH returned below 7.00

What's next for the Chinese yuan This post is written and submitted by for informational purposes only. In no way shall it be interpreted or construed to create any warranties of any kind, including an offer to buy or sell any currencies or other instruments. 

Video: Two emerging market currencies to buy on a trade deal

Drilling down into the deal It's touch-and-go on a trade deal but if it happens, you don't want to be in the US dollar, euro or yen. A turn higher in global growth is an idea time to sell those and look to emerging markets. I spoke to BNNBloomberg about two emerging market currencies that I

Friday, November 8, 2019

European trade ideas thread - 08 November 2019

Risk in the balance again  It''s like two cats watching the US and China trade dispute. One minute they are purring at each other and the next minute they are scratching each other. Fickle creatures.

Germany September trade balance EUR 21.1bln vs +19.5bln exp

German Federal Statistical Office EURUSD currently at  ForexLive

Swiss October unemployment rate  2.2% vs 2.2% expected

Prior 2.1% Readings in line with estimates and reaffirms solid labour market conditions for the Swiss economy.  ForexLive

GBPUSD in focus: Option levels in play 

GBPUSD holds 1.2800 support . The GBP is supported by a Conservative lead in the polls. Tow forces, one a push and one a pull. The GBP is pressured after the BoE dovish twist

Why is risk tone mixed this am after rollback tariffs agreed?

Risk is in the balance...again Ok, so we have had news from China and the US that rollback tariffs will be in play? So everything should be hunky dory, right?

CHF the strongest and AUD the weakest 

Risk titling off in the FX space This morning we have the AUD as the weakest currency on the back of the RBA minutes out last night which showed the RBA's hand and it was  

Quick look at Asian indices: Risk titling towards off

Asian indices pressured So we are back to the US and China heading towards signing a Phase 1 deal and mutually agreeing to roll back tariffs, phase by phase. The level of mistrust here shows that this deal is more of a 'truce' than a 'deal'. The mental image that comes to mind is of two

What's ahead for the European data slate

Scheduled Data ahead for Europe am Hello from a very cold and dreary UK start. The good news for me, in terms of weather, is that I am travelling to Malaysia over the weekend to teach at an FX educational event. So there should be some sunshine (and showers) ahead! Better pack my suncream.

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bloomberg to shake up Democratic race?

Forex news for Asia-Pacific trading on November 8, 2019: Markets: Market moves were modest across the board but the commodity currencies came under some modest pressure. The Nikkie opened 1% higher but gave almost all of it back in a tentative sign of worry despite yet-another White House story about a deal.

Option expiries for the New York cut on Nov 7: A big one in cable today

What's on the option expiration calendar today: I highlighed the huge expiry at 1.27 yesterday but with spot at 1.2815 the one at 1.2800 is more likely to come into play. There's also weekend risk with election polls so there will be plenty to watch surrounding the pound in the hour or so after the cut.

Strong case to sell EUR/CHF and buy AUD/NZD ahead of new year - TD

TD with some trade ideas For bank trade ideas, . TD Research discusses the latest readings from its MRSI basket into year-end. "The FX market is less confident, though again, one of the major trading themes right now revolves around positioning and valuation. We have seen some important changes to. It looks pro-risk but also captures the mini-reflation

China October exports -0.9% y/y in USD terms vs -3.9% expected

Chinese trade balance higher than anticipated In yuan terms: Better numbers than anticipated. These numbers aren't on the calendar and come out at unexpected times.

The jump in US oil exports has really screwed up inventory estimates

There's a fight going on about US inventories If you haven't been following the oil market, you have missed some good twitter fights. It stems back to the incredible 7.9 million barrel per day rise in weekly US oil inventories. The problem is that the market has changed. The US used to export very little crude but

Nikkei gives back early 1% gain

Nikkei 225 near flat A nearly 1% gain in the Nikkei 225 has evaporated. The index is now flat on the day. I wouldn't sound the alarm just yet but there is some weakness creeping into USD/JPY as well.

Video: An end to the trade war is just the beginning for emerging market FX

Two emerging market currencies to buy right now Many in the market want to believe that a phase one trade deal is priced in but we are just now seeing the signs of a sea change in sentiment around global growth sentiment. That will last.

Fed's Bostic says he wouldn't have supported last rate cut if he had a vote

Hawkish comment from the Atlanta Fed leader Bostic is showing some hawkish stripes. He gets a vote in 2021, which is about the time the Fed should be thinking about hiking again.

Japan economy min: Will compile economic package as soon as possible

Japan to get some fiscal stimulus The BOJ has been hinting that this was coming. ForexLive

PBOC sets yuan midpoint below 7 for the first time since August

PBOC setting A setting below 7 was a foregone conclusion after the positive comments on a trade deal earlier. ForexLive

RBA statement on monetary policy: Further easing could convey 'overly negative' view on economy

RBA statement on monetary policy highlights: The prior statement also lowered GDP estimates. ForexLive

Australia September home loans +3.6% vs +1.0% m/m expected

Home lending data for Australia: ForexLive

White House 'very optimistic' will soon reach China deal - Aide

More positive headlines A White House aide/spokesman on Fox News, also cited by the newswires. The aide said the is "very, very optimistic" about reaching a trade deal with China.

Fed's Bostic: Further rate adjustments will depend on data

Comments from the Atlanta Fed leader: In line with Powell's comments. No surprise here. ForexLive

Nikkei 225 hits a fresh 1-year high at the open

Nikkei keeps the momentum going The Nikkei 225 is up 0.8% shortly after the open as it follows the optimism from Wall street. It's a nice looking chart without much in the way for another 3% to the upside. The soft yen is certainly helping.

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Copper set to gain if latest trade remarks are confirmed by the US

Copper good bellwether for global growth Known as 'Dr Copper' it give a good assessment on global health. If we get some US confirmation on the latest positive Chine trade remarks a clean pull away from the 200EMA would be on the cards, with stops tucked in neatly below. 

Swiss September foreign currency reserves  779.1bln vs 776.9 bln prior

SNB Highest level in 20 years. Need a spare bob or two? Try knocking on the SNB's door. Not market moving.  Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets held by a central bank. Their main function is  to balance payments of the country, to influence the exchange rate of its currency  and to just generally

European stocks futures extend gains after China's conciliatory remarks

Risk on ForexLive

Why did risk suddenly switch to on?

China ready to play ball . The latest risk on move was from this headline here:  If you missed the spike, but want to try and get in, expecting buyers on pullbacks. Of course, watch out for conflicting reports.

China ready to negotiate? AUDJPY up on conciliatory remarks

AUDJPY up    Risk on in immediate reaction ForexLive

Trade ideas thread - European session 07 November 2019

Risk in the balance The current mood is seeing JPY strength and NZD weakness as risk is in the balance. The growing concern is around the US-China phase 1 trade deal. To sign, or not to sign. That is the question. I am sitting on my hands this am waiting for a potential move out of

German September Industrial Production -0.6% vs -0.4% m/m expected

Destatis Eurusd unmoved on the release ForexLive

Quick look at Asian indices: Risk is still in the balance

US China news to dictate risk  A delayed deal will be ok, but a cancelled deal will hammer the world's leading indexes ForexLive

Reuters poll: Markets turn bullish on Chinese Yuan for the first time since April

Bullish Yuan The recent optimism regarding a Phase 1 US-China deal has supported the Yuan. The current wobble shouldn't be enough to de-rail that optimism and yuan strength as long as the deal is only delayed and not cancelled. That is the risk going forward, that the deal is cancelled and then we will see a

BOJ Kuroda on the wires

Bank of Japan ForexLive

What's ahead for the European am session?

Europe's data slate German Industrial production - This should show a pick up, but German manufacturing is closely tied to US-China trade negotiations. 0700: Swiss Foreign Currency reserves

Australia October foreign reserves A$67.9 billion vs A$69.0 billion prior

RBA Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets held by a central bank. Their main function is  to balance payments of the country, to influence the exchange rate of its currency  and to just generally maintain confidence in financial markets.

 US-China trade talks: A guilty silence leads to risk off tilt.  

BOE metting at 12:00GMT The mood of the market has gone from neutral/cautious to slightly negative/cautious as the US is taking too long to respond to China's tariff rollback requests. The silence indicates something is wrong. 

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Aussie trade balance beats, yen crosses fall

Forex news for Asia-Pacific trading on November 7, 2019: Markets: - JPY leads, NZD lags - Nikkei 225 down 0.1% - Gold up $1 to $1491 - WTI crude flat at $56.31 The market was a bit more lively than what the economic calendar let on. The focus remains on China-US trade and the growing sense of unease around it due

The mood on US-China trade is souring, and it's taking yen crosses with it

The market is worried The market certainly isn't frightened yet, but it's feeling a cold draft down it's back. The US-China deal was supposed to be done. That was a line repeated time after time by top US trade officials.

China and US officials disclose fentanyl prosecution cooperation

Smugglers punished in China Officials from the US and China will hold a rare joint media briefing today on a fentanyl smuggling case. The press conference will be in Xingtai city. It included the sentencing of the ring leader to the death penalty, albeit with a reprieve. Two others involved in the ring were also given life

Think it's too late? The world's greatest fund manager didn't make money until he was 52

Jim Simons had modest wealth at 52; now he's worth $23 billion Financial markets -- and risk taking in general -- are largely the domain of the young. Early adulthood is the time to swing for the fences while middle age is a time for prudence, perhaps risking a manageable part of the nest egg.

It was a landmark day for US shale producers and the outlook is worsening

Keep an eye on shale The shale boom is quietly busting. Within the energy market there is an increasing acceptance that the tide is going out on shale. Today shares of shale star companies like Occidental and Diamondback Energy crumbled to long-term lows.

Option expiries for the New York cut on November 7, 2019

Nearby option expiries Here are the significant options rolling off at the New York cut at 10 am ET. Reminder that US clocks went back an hour on the weekend.

PBOC sets yuan midpoint at 7.0008 vs 7.0044 estimate

The daily midpoint from the central bank ForexLive

Australia September trade balance +A$7180 vs +A$5050m expected

September trade balance data from Australia: ForexLive

Nikkei 225 opens modestly lower

Eyes on Softbank Softbank reported results as it wades through the WeWork fiasco. It hasn't traded yet today. The Nikkei is down 0.2% in early trade but has rallied more than 9% since mid-October.

No comments on monetary policy or the outlook from Fed's Williams

New York Fed President Williams at a welcoming event Earlier today, Williams said: ForexLive

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Italy October manufacturing PMI 52.2vs 51.4 expected

Markit ForexLive

European bourses flat at the open on US-China trade deal caution 

Europe flat at the cash open China wanting the US to rollback September tariffs. US has not confirmed they will or won't. The result is cautious trading, as the market waist for a fresh catalyst. 

Fiscal policy is key for Euro upside

Fiscal policy needed for the Euro Draghi tried to help out Lagarde as he realised that monetary policy has now run its course. Fiscal policy is the tool needed now to try and lift the Euro. The Euro data has shown some improvement, but German Gov't spending could really help the drag in German manufacturing. 

China and France will push forward Airbus A350 completion and delivery centre

Via Reuters China and France will Perhaps a little message to the US from China, 'we have airbus near to us and Boeing isn't the only player in town'.  ForexLive

European trade ideas thread - 06 November 2019

Where's you head at? Greetings one and all! So, where are we this am? We have had NZD weakness on the weaker employment data increasing the chances of a RBNZ rate cut and risk is cautious awaiting news from the US whether they will roll back the September tariffs. No roll back= less chase of phase

Chart in focus: AUDNZD - diverging outlooks between the RBA and RBNZ

RBA vs RBNZ AUDNZD longs look good this morning. The employment data out last night for the NZD was on the soft side and chances of a rate cut have now increased to 68.4% pressuring the NZD. 

Germany September Factory Orders 1.3% vs 0.1% expected

Destatis ForexLive

South China Morning Post: President Xi's visit to Brazil too soon to sign deal

SCMP - Via Ransquakw Link to full article here. ForexLive

China and France getting cosy

China strengthening European ties Adam pointed out earlier that if there is a worsening if US China trade relations there will be a push and pull between US and China over Europe. With the UK out of the EU then the US's special ally is now out of the European big boys club. Potential for severe

Nikkei unofficially closes up +0.22% 

Equity markets waiting on the US For the Phase one deal to progress further towards a signature we really need to hear that the US will remove the tariffs in imposed on China in September. The White House are still silent on the issue, hence the undecided Asian equity markets: 

AUD the strongest and NZD the weakest currency 

Against the USD The NZD is weak after the employment data out last night which has slightly increased the chances of a rate cut.  The AUD is stronger on risk on flows. 

What's ahead for the morning session? 

This morning's data slate Asian equity markets are relatively flat as there is some caution regarding the US-China Phase 1 deal. Here is what's ahead for the European am session (all times GMT): 

Asian Indices relatively flat on Phase 1 deal uncertainty

Relatively flat ahead of European open Yesterday's optimism on the Us-China phase 1 trade deal has been replaced by caution today. Wall St finished flat where the major indices closed flat near record highs. The caution is due to China being seen to be unwilling to flinch on tariffs with the removal of levies a possible

ForexLive Asia-Pacific news wrap: New Zealand unemployment rises

Forex news for Asia-Pacific trading on November 5, 2019: Markets: - WTI crude down 32-cents to $56.92 - Nikkei 225 up 0.1% - Yen leads, CAD lags The main event of the day was the New Zealand jobs report. There weren't any huge surprises but the numbers were on the soft side and the odds of a cut next week

Xi: China-France relations pushed to a new level

Comments from Xi on France: Europe will never turn away from the seduction of Chinese trade. The US wants to take on China but unless they can build a coalition that includes Europe, convincing Beijing to change will be an impossible task.

If you want to win in anything you need to believe in yourself

A bit of inspiration Success in any endeavor is similar. It takes a combination of dedication, discipline, resilience and luck. On the weekend, Canelo Alvarez pulled off an incredible feat -- moving up 20 lbs in weight and knocking out Sergey Kovalev to win a light-heavyweight title.

US economic outperformance has run its course, sell USD/JPY - Morgan Stanley

Interesting note from Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley argues for selling USD/JPY at spot with the 109.20/30 resistance area offering a chance to put a stop at 109.40.

AUD/JPY touches three-month high. What's next

AUD/JPY nears the July highs AUD/JPY touched the highest since July 26 yesterday and is holding near the high. This pair was battled from December 2018 through August and -- no coincidence -- that was the time when the trade war was constantly worsening.

PBOC official says cross-border yuan usage up 20% year-over-year

The yuan slowly growing into a global currency A PBOC official cited by Reuters says that cross-border yuan usage in the January-Sept period exceeded 14 trillion yuan. That's up 20% year-over-year.

Audio recap: Partial trade deal euphoria

What's moving markets today Risk markets continue to milk everything they can out of the news of a partial trade deal between the US and China, with the S&P 500 extending its run yet again to another record high. The dollar has also dropped back below the 7 handle against the offshore yuan for the first time since mid-August as

PBOC sets yuan midpoint at 7.0080 vs 7.0090 estimate

The PBOC's yuan midpoint Yesterday's close was 7.0058. This is the lowest since August 8. The reference rate today is a bit lower than anticipated. Estimates ranged from 7.0090 to 7.0121.

Ray Dalio highlights the absurd world of free money

Ray Dalio says 'The world has gone mad and the system is broken' Hedge fund superstar Ray Dalio has long warned that we're in a terrible place in the debt cycle and at risk of stoking extreme political shifts.

Japan Jibun Bank services PMI 49.7 vs 50.3 prelim

Japan Jibun Bank PMIs ForexLive

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

More from Fed's Barkin: It is a good time to pause with interest rates

More from Richmond Fed Pres. Thomas Barkin (non voter) ForexLive

JOLTS job openings for September 7024 vs 7063 estimate

JOLTS job openings for September 2019 ForexLive

US ISM nonmanufacturing index for October 54.7 versus 53.5 estimate

US ISM nonmanufacturing index for October 2019 - ISM nonmanufacturing 54.7 versus 53.5 estimate .  Prior month 52.6 - price is paid index 56.6 versus 60.0 and September ForexLive

Markit US services PMI for October 50.6 vs 51.0 preliminary reading

Composite index 50.9 versus 51.2 ForexLive

Spot gold tumbles and back below the $1500 level

Gives up on the topside as rates move higher US rates continue to move higher and that is putting some pressure on the price of spot gold. The precious metal is also dipped back below the $1500 level which may be weakening the longs hands.

And they're off.... US stocks higher but off pre-market highs

The major indices all closed at new all time highs yesterday A day after the major indices closed at record highs, the US stocks are now open and trading modestly higher. The levels are off the premarket futures levels and moving lower is the 1st reaction.

USDJPY moves closer to the 200 day MA/109.00 level

Last week, the price spiked above the MA on FOMC day, but quickly retreated The USDJPY is higher for the thrid day in a row (bottomed on Friday).  The move higher today consolidated at the start, above and below the 200 hour MA (green line at 108.602) and the 50% retracment at 106.58. That combination does

EURUSD continues it's fall. Runs away from it 100 day MA

Also cracked trend line and 100 bar MA on th 4 hour chart The EURUSD started the week yesterday near the two week highs, and immediately started to run lower.   

China Global editor: US and China must simultaneously move on tariffs

Hu Xijin editor of the China Global Times To reach a deal, China and US must simultaneously remove the existing additional tariffs at the same ratio, which means that tariffs to be removed should be in proportion to how much agreement has been reached

Canada international merchandise trade for September -0.98 billion versus -0.65 billion estimate

Canada international merchandise trade for September 2019 ForexLive

US trade balance for September the $-52.5 billion versus $-52.4 billion estimate

US trade balance for the month of September 2019 ForexLive

A look at some of the economic releases and events today

US and Canada trade data due at the bottom of the hour ForexLive

The AUD is the strongest while the CHF is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

The USD is mixed As North American traders enter for the trading day, the AUD is the strongest. The RBA kept rates unchanged and signalled that they are comfortable with rates here and that the 'gentle turning point' in the economy continues. The CHF is the weakest.  The USD is mixed.  There is some chattter about

Fed's Barkin: If the consumers keep spending, US economy is in a good place

Fed's Barkin weighs in on the economy The Fed's Barkin is on the wires weighing in on the US economy. ForexLive

UK General Election: Lib Dems currently third in the polls

What would the Lib Dems do . However, their leader . Jo Swinson, will relate to voters and is bit differnt to your average politicians. She is just a touch more down to earth and I could see her appeal growing. The UK voting system, first past the post, won't help her.  

Saudi Aramco: Will be subject to 1yr restriction on selling Aramco shares after IPO

Saudi Aramco ForexLive

Jeremy Corbyn: Asked if he would revoke Article 50 to gain Lib Dem support

Brexit:Jeremy Corbyn on A50 withdrawal Translated from political speak that means, 'yes, I can confirm we would'.  One area to watch is a Labour Lib Dem coalition. The immediate net result would be GBP strength as Britain would then be seen as being less likely to leave the EU. Interesting times ahead with all the potential alliances

Forexlive European FX News 5 Nov: US China trade optimism boosts risk assets

European morning news Intro Paragraph Text Here. Other markets The session started with a positive boost to risk assets on optimism regarding the US-China trade deal. This sentiment lasted throughout the session and we saw German bund yields breaking out of 3 months highs, US Oil retest the $57 handle, and the Yuan retake the 7.00 handle as

EU's Barnier on Brexit: Once agreement ratified will bring certainty

EU Barnier Barnier is buzzing like a hornet - can't blame him really. Brexit is still not over yet, so there is a long way to go. A hung parliament would further muddy the waters ahead. 

Yougov poll: Conservative on 38% and Labour 25%

You gov poll from November 01 Libdem: 16% BP: 11% The Politico poll of polls has a slight difference and a publishing data of 2 Nov. See here :  ForexLive

Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson rules out helping Labour's Corbyn become UK's PM

Few want Corbyn as PM A massive swing to the left under Labour's leader Jeremy Corbyn is not popular with many in the UK. Take a look here to see Labour leader's Corbyn favourability tracker. Negative -50 apx.

OPEC Secretary General Barkindo: Deeper oil cut is question now

OPEC ForexLive

China's Communist Party on Honk Kong

Via Reuters Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says President XI expressed care and concern about Hong King situation   ForexLive

Monday, November 4, 2019

US Commerce Secretary Ross reportedly meets with Chinese Premier Li

Via Ransquawk ForexLive

NZD the strongest and Swiss franc the weakest against the USD

NZD leads the pack Typical risk on flows against the USD this am: Asian equities bid on the day and set to close higher shortly. ForexLive

Christine Lagarde's first speech in Berlin at 20:30 

Lagarde to call for fiscal stimulus Draghi's gift to Lagarde was to start a concerted effort calling for fiscal stimulus to lift the economy. This takes the pressure off ECB Monterey policy and was a canny move from Draghi to his successor. You can only do what can be done. This is probably a line that

Chinese premier Li ready to speed up trade talks with Japan

Market access talks progress Premier Li ready to speed up trade talks with Japan and South Korea, while he also stated that 15 nations concluded RCEP negotiations and completed substantial market access talks. 

What's coming up in the European session?

Risk on for the start of the week  To start the week Asian equities are broadly higher as the risk on sentiment settles in further. The US-China phase 1 trade deal is now 99% there. In other words, everything seems virtually done,  apart from the signature. As Adam pointed out earlier (Adam bot usually around this time

ForexLive Asia-Pacific news wrap: Kiwi sets the early-week pace

Forex news for Asia-Pacific trading on November 4, 2019: Markets: - Gold down $2.50 to $1511 - WTI crude down 33-cents to $55.87 - Shanghai Composite +0.75% Japan was closed for a holiday to start the week but aside from sapping USD/JPY, it wasn't as dead as anticipated.

Chinese yuan rises to the highest levels since mid-August

USD/CNH falls below the 100-day moving average Here's your chart of the day. USD/CNH is down 0.2% today and the decline has taken out both the Sept low, the Oct low and the 100-day moving average.

Trump invites southeast Asian leaders to US for special summit

Trump makes a move The geographical battleground of the trade war is in southeast Asia. It's an area where China is trying to expand and solidify ties while the US is trying to beat back Beijing. There's a military component as well as China tries to dominate the South China Sea.

Option expiries for the New York cut, November 4, 2019

What's on deck for today The first thing to note is that 10 am in New York is an hour earlier than it was last week. It falls at 1500 GMT because New York clocks went backwards an hour on Sunday.

New Zealand said to agreed to upgraded free-trade agreement with China

Report from Radio New Zealand NZD/USD ticked a few pips higher on the headline. It was already up about 30 pips on the day in steady bidding since the open. RNZ was out with 5 minutes ago.

Six November forex seasonals patterns to watch

What are the seasonal trading trends in November I'm a bit late this month with the seasonal rundown but it's been a sluggish start to the month so you probably haven't missed anything.

Ross: We're very far along with Phase One China deal

Are they not killing any leverage they have? Ross is doing the regular song and dance about progress on a Phase One deal but I have to start wondering if there's some risk here.

Wilbur Ross hints that auto tariffs aren't coming

This one was under the radar Wilbur Ross spoke to Bloomberg on Sunday in Bangkok. The headline from the interview was the usual positive talk about the Phase One trade deal with China but the real story might be buried.

Market update: Trade optimism gives New Zealand dollar an early boost

Kiwi paces the FX market so far We're off and running in another week of FX trading. Japan is on holiday today so that's a bit of a damper but there is some life, especially in the antipodeans.

China cozies up to Australia at summit but diplomacy will be paramount

Australia and China work to repair bilateral relationship If the US and China are decoupling then it leaves Australia in a precarious place. Its culture, institutions and history is tied to the west, but its economy and geography are tied to the east.

PBOC sets yuan mid-point at 7.0382 vs 7.0372 prior

Firmer yuan This isn't quite a strong as forecast but the market's attention is elsewhere at the moment. The PBOC also announced it will skip open market operations today but there is also chatter than the PBOC is gauging demand for 7, 14, 28 and 63-day repos.

New Zealand Treasury sees downside risks to economic forecasts

Highlights of the monthly economic assessment from the New Zealand treasury ForexLive

Australia October ANZ job ads -1.0% vs +0.3% prior

Monthly online and newspaper job ads survey from ANZ: ForexLive

Australia September retail sales +0.2% vs +0.4% expected

Australia September 2019 retail sales data: Poor number and AUD/USD kicks lower. It's now given up the day's gains of about a dozen pips and is unchanged. ForexLive

Australia September retail sales coming up next

So top tier data up next Australian September and Q3 retail sales numbers are due out at the bottom of the hour. The consensus on sales is +0.4%. ANZ job advertisements are also due out. The prior was +0.3%.

Reminder: Japan is on holiday and US clocks changed Sunday

Japanese markets are closed today Today is Culture Day in Japan so get out there and enjoy some anime, crazy game shows and sushi. Note that North American clocks went backwards by an hour on the weekend so New York is now 5 hours behind GMT.

Australia October Melbourne Institute inflation +1.5% vs +1.5% y/y prior

The private inflation survey from the Melbourne Institute: ForexLive

UK Lloyd's business barometer +6 vs +2 prior

The UK business measure from Lloyd's It's an improvement, but we're not exactly cooking with gas here. ForexLive

Australian inflation data from the Melbourne Institute up next

Private inflation data to come Australia isn't cranking out inflation the way it used to, even with rates at extremely low levels. Due at the top of the hour is the Melbourne Institute's measure of inflation. The prior readings were +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y.

QE in Australia? Goldman Sachs doesn't think it's a good idea

The RBA meeting is Tuesday The RBA is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.75% on Tuesday but fears about a global slowdown have Goldman Sachs thinking about what could come next if they hit the zero bound.

Net US dollar long futures bets are the narrowest since June 2018

CFTC positioning shows bets on the dollar have dropped The Federal Reserves mid-cycle adjustment has chased out US dollar longs. The week ahead will be an interesting one because the CFTC data is from Tuesday's close. That was before Powell had the chance to commit to keep rates here or lower for a long time:

Sunday, November 3, 2019

Westpac will raise $2 billion by selling shares, cuts dividend

Dilutive move from the Australian bank The stock to watch in Australia today will be one of the country's Big Four banks. Westpac is selling A$2 billion worth of shares in a private placement at $25.32/share. That's a 9.2% discount to Friday's closing level.

What's on the Asia-Pacific economic calendar to start the week: Aussie retail sales the highlight

What's coming up Welcome to the new week. Eamonn is off on a well-earned vacation so I'll be filing in for him this week. I'll do my best to keep the wit and sarcasm at his levels.

It's the start of the new FX week and the Australian dollar is higher

Monday morning early FX indications It's just about 9 am in Auckland and that means the FX trading week is underway. Here are the early price indications: All the usual caveats about low liquidity apply.

Friday, November 1, 2019

China says that reports of Xi, Trump meeting in Macau is pure speculation

Further comments by the Chinese foreign ministry here Anyway, I don't think there's any hidden meaning to the headline here but it just means that they probably haven't settled on a location or are just playing it coy for the time being.

China says have maintained close contact with US on meeting between Xi, Trump

Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry - Reiterates that trade consultations have gone smoothly ForexLive This sort of echoes a similar message to what Trump mentioned yesterday. Then again, all of this pertains to just "Phase One" of the trade deal.

EUR/USD picks up from where it left off yesterday

Not much has changed as we look towards US non-farm payrolls ForexLive The pair is sitting mildly higher on the day at around 1.1160 levels - . similar to where we traded yesterday during the European morning

Gold buyers seek confirmation after move higher in overnight trading

Gold still in search of a solid break higher since the start of the week A more negative tone to US-China trade talks yesterday helped solidify gains above $1,500 again but with the Fed hinting at a pause in the rate cut cycle, the short-term outlook may be a bit tricky as that sentiment may carry

Trade ideas thread - European session 1 November 2019

Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts The dollar remains weaker across the board as we begin the session, with post-FOMC flows still dictating the state of play for the most part.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.41% at 22,833.00

Japanese stocks ease following losses in Wall St overnight The mood in the region is more mixed though with Chinese and Hong Kong stocks posting decent gains, following better-than-expected data from China earlier today.

USD/JPY stays on the edge as all eyes turn to US non-farm payrolls

USD/JPY stays somewhat supported near the 108.00 handle for now ForexLive Price is leaning against the trendline support from August after the move lower overnight as buyers are holding on near the 108.00 level.

European pre-market: Dollar stays softer as focus turns to payrolls

The dollar is on the back foot once again today ForexLive The dollar is weaker across the board as markets continue to keep up the post-FOMC flows ahead of the weekend. Notably, the kiwi is leading gains but NZD/USD continues to rest just above 0.6400 after a bit of a shaky performance yesterday.

Economists see no more RBA rate cuts for this year - poll

The latest poll by Reuters show that the RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady until early next year The latest Reuters poll on economists shows that most (25 of 36 surveyed) are expecting the RBA to only cut rates again to 0.50% by early 2020. The median of the survey shows that economists

Economic data coming up in the European session

A light one on the data docket ahead of the US jobs report Looking ahead, there isn't much in terms of European releases to shake things up so expect the ebb and flow to dictate trading sentiment for the most part. If anything else, just be wary of US-China trade headlines as well after yesterday's downbeat

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: China private survey manufacturing PMI jumps

Forex news for Asia trading Friday 1 November 2019  The second manufacturing PMI from China for October was published today, the Caixin/Markit private survey. Its a different survey to the one used for the official PMI that we saw yesterday. And it was a much different result! While the official PMI dropped further into contraction and

Bank of England monetary policy meeting next week - preview

This quick take via Markit on what to expect from the BoE next week, and into 2021! BoE meet Thursday ForexLive

Recap of the 2nd manufacturing PMI from China for October - difficult divergence

The official manufacturing PMI from China released yesterday dropped deeper into contraction: However the private Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI release today (a different survey … if it was the same there'd be no point to it, right?) painted the opposite picture, its best for nearly 3 years, a beat, and deeper into expansion!

Australia press on "Why the RBA will keep cutting rates"

An opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review says that  the need for low rates is not a temporary phenomenon, but rather a powerful long-term dynamic It notes various factors for this, but this one is probably of most relevance for why the RBA is acting now after years of dithering:

China - Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI for October: 51.7 (expected 51.0, prior 51.4)

A big beat and to its highest since February of 2017 ForexLive

More on today's North Korean missile test

Comments out of Japan on the test earlier  - 2 missiles - flew 350 to 400km into the Sea of japan - landed outside Japan's exclusive economic zone ForexLive

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0437 (vs. yesterday at 7.0533)

People's Bank of China  ForexLive

FX option expiries for Friday November 1 at the 10am NY cut

EUR/USD -  1.1100 1.2bn EUR -  1.1150 3.4bn -  1.1175 715m -  1.1200 5.4bn  USD/JPY  GBP/USD  AUD/USD  USD/CAD

GBP benefitting most from some Asia USD weakness

A little bit of USD weakness almost across the board, but its GBP outperforming: There is no fresh sterling-related news. 1.2955 gonna be a bit of a challenge for it without any. 

Japan Manufacturing PMI (final, October): 48.4 (preliminary 48.5, prior 48.9)

This is Japan's Jibun Bank/Markit Manufacturing PMI (final for October):  Comes in at a 40 month low, ugly result indeed at 48.4  - vs. preliminary 48.5, prior 48.9 Yesterday the BOJ opened the door wider to further policy easing. Like it or not its getting more difficult for them sit on their hands. Its a conundrum, some of this

Australia PPI for Q3: 0.4% q/q (prior 0.4%)

Australian Producer Price Indexes (PPI) data point does not tend to have too much FX impact upon release 0.4 % q/q - prior, for Q2, was +0.4%  1.6 % y/y 

South Korean exports data for October are ugly again

October exports are -14.7% y/y (Reuters poll expected at -13.8%) Exports to China -16.9% y/y  -- SK is often viewed as a canary in the coal mine for the global economy. The canary is unwell. 

Nonfarm payroll due from the US Friday - preview

Its NFP day, an earlier preview is here: Nonfarm payroll report due Friday - preview Snippet via SG now: Forecasts: - +90k - u/e 3.5% - avge hourly earnings 0.2% m/m

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